According to an internal poll by Kitchen Table Conservatives, a super PAC aligned with Jack Ciattarelli, there hasn’t been much movement in the Republican gubernatorial race over the past eight months. Among GOP primary voters, Ciattarelli leads Bill Spadea by 42% to 13%, while Jon Bramnick is at 4% and Ed Durr and Mario Kranjac are each at 2%.
The survey was carried out by Kellyanne Conaway’s company; she is a board member of the Kitchen Table Conservatives.
Thirty-five percent of Republicans are still unsure.
Ciattarelli, the most well-known candidate in the field, is a former assemblyman running for governor for the third time.
Ciattarelli s favorables are 53%-9%, and Spadea is 26%-20%. Bramnick is between 12% and 8%.
The polling, four months after the first debate, is consistent with the race we’ve seeing in other campaign activity, like as funding and endorsements. Jack Ciattarelli maintains a big lead, and Bill Spadea fails to gain any traction, a polling memo stated. At 13%, Spadea is still in the teens following seven months of campaigning.
Since a June 2024 poll, Donald Trump’s astronomical approval ratings among New Jersey Republicans have stayed relatively stable, ranging from 90% to 9%.
Former Gov. Chris Christie remains overwhelmingly unpopular among Republicans in his home state, with upside-down favorables of 28%-65%.
Only 9% of GOP primary voters said they would be less inclined to vote for a gubernatorial candidate with Trump’s endorsement, and 25% said it would not matter. Nearly two-thirds of GOP primary voters (65%) indicated they would be more likely to do so.
And 75% of New Jersey Republicans indicated that they would prefer to nominate an America First, Trump-like candidate for governor, while 15% want a traditional, establishment candidate, and 7% favor a moderate, anti-Trump Republican.
The super PAC, which was formed to limit Spadea s ability to increase his popularity among Republican primary voters, tested a series of questions designed to increase his negatives: 67% less likely to vote for him when they learned he once said, President Trump failed. Those who were informed that Spadea had recommended Republicans not to cast ballots in the 2021 gubernatorial election were 72% less likely to say, “I don’t want him to run again; it’s time for new blood.” They were also 62% less likely to say, “I am a little more liberal than my conservative friends.” I do support amnesty. I do believe in a pathway to citizenship; and 63% were less likely to back him after finding out that he urged people to contribute to Christie so that he could make the presidential debate stage.
After that series of questions, 54% of Republican primary voters viewed Spadea as the establishment candidate and just 7% identified him as a pro-Trump, MAGA candidate.
According to a June Kitchen Table Conservative survey, Ciattarelli’s lead was 33 points ahead of Spadea, the host of NJ 101.5 radio, 44%–11%, with Durr and Bramnick scoring 3% and 2%, respectively, while 36% of Republicans were unsure.
In June of last year, Bramnick had favorables of 8%-4%, Spadea was at 20%-8%, and Ciattarelli’s was at 47%-26%.
As of the end of 2024, Kitchen Table Conservatives had $370,315 in cash on hand and had already spent $215,005, primarily on anti-Spadea advertisements, according to disclosures submitted to the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
The KAConsulting poll was conducted on February 5-7 with a sample size of 600 and a margin of error of +/- 4%.
