Although the state’s primary power grid is more resilient to a strong winter storm than it has been in the past, Texas’ grid operator cautioned that the state should brace for extremely cold temperatures this winter.
While winter posed a higher risk of outages, new power generation added to the grid in the last year has reduced the likelihood that extreme cold could cause emergency circumstances, according to officials from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas during a board meeting on Tuesday.
Chris Coleman, an ERCOT meteorologist, forecasted above-normal temperatures this winter along with a “greater-than-average” likelihood of extreme cold events.
Despite unusually high temperatures in Texas overall, he added, extreme cold occurrences have become increasingly common in recent years.
Extreme weather is becoming more often due to climate change, according to scientists. At the ERCOT meeting, however, the term “climate change” was not mentioned in any of the presentations.
According to Coleman’s presentation to the board, Texas is expected to experience its warmest years ever in 2023 and 2024.
“You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that’s becoming more frequent,” he stated. “Five of the last eight winters, we’ve had temperatures that met those thresholds.”
According to Coleman’s prediction, this year’s soil moisture, ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and other metrics are very similar to those of 2021. Days of below-freezing temperatures brought on by Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 caused the state’s grid to collapse, leaving millions of Texans without heat or power and resulting in almost 250 fatalities.
“That doesn’t mean we’re going to have Uri, but it does, again, state that we’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” Coleman stated. “The conditions are there.”
The ERCOT grid’s advancements since 2021 would be put to the test by another significant winter storm.
Winter power demand has also risen in recent years, according to ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas, with the grid experiencing a record-breaking demand of 78,349 megawatts in January.
Since November 2023, more than 10,000 megawatts of new generation had been added to Texas’ grid, lowering the likelihood of an outage, according to Vegas.
The new supply has 3,693 megawatts of energy storage capacity and 5,155 megawatts of solar power, which is more solar and power storage installed in a year than the combined amount from many states. Additionally, Texas added 616 megawatts of wind power and 724 megawatts of natural gas.
According to Vegas’ presentation, the probability of emergency situations during periods of high demand has decreased from 11.6% last winter to 8.7% this winter because to the additional capacity.
Texas is fully prepared as a state to ensure that we have the power available to keep the power on through whatever storm is going to develop, Governor Greg Abbott said at a press conference on emergency preparedness Tuesday.
Abbott also cited the state’s measures to fortify the grid and the expanding power supplies. “No matter what kind of winter storm strikes, we are working tirelessly to ensure that the power remains on,” he said.
Although some energy experts contend that the number is lower due to less efficient heating systems in many homes, ERCOT estimates that 250 Texas households are served by 1 megawatt of electricity during periods of peak demand.
In preparation for coming winter, weatherization activities have also reinforced the grid, according to Vegas. Since the Texas Legislature defined a set of weatherization criteria in 2021 following Uri, ERCOT has conducted 2,892 inspections of transmission and generating facilities.
According to Vegas, the regulations have “markedly changed the risk profile of the ERCOT grid, particularly during the winter seasons.”
Nevertheless, he pointed out that the need for electricity rises in the winter and that solar and wind power generate less power during that time.
The intense cold during Uri shut down all power sources in the state, including wind turbines, gas-powered plant equipment, and natural gas delivery infrastructure.
This story was contributed to by Pooja Salhotra.
The Texas Tribune first published this piece on December 3, 2024, at https://www.texastribune.org/texas-power-grid-ercot-winter-forecast-extreme-cold/.
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