Even if New Jerseyans aren’t usually polite, a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican can nevertheless have a reasonable and agreeable discussion about the state’s politics. Alex Wilkes, a lawyer and former executive director of America Rising PAC, advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and nationwide, including the New Jersey GOP, whereas Dan Bryan, a former senior advisor to Governor Phil Murphy, currently runs his own public affairs firm. Currently present in the room where important decisions are made are seasoned strategists Dan and Alex. Every week, they will meet with David Wildstein, editor of the New Jersey Globe, to talk about problems and politics.
What are the best ways to provide our readers with the most responsible context when covering internal campaign surveys, and should the New Jersey Globe and other media outlets do so?
Alex WilkesI assume that readers of the New Jersey Globe are intelligent enough to comprehend the typical context for these surveys (e.g., making sure internal is indicated in the headline, etc.). You risk fooling average voters rather than political junkies, but even that is a relatively tiny audience, because the media is skewed (both sides are guilty of it) for mail pieces and fundraising requests.
Sincerely, considering all of our recent polling failures? Internal surveys, in my opinion, ought to be discussed. Voters who have been disappointed and taken aback far too frequently in recent years by public opinion can truly benefit from the campaign’s willingness to give media outlets like the Globe a behind-the-scenes look at some trends that the mainstream may be overlooking.
Dan BryanAlthough I’m not sure if internal surveys are worth reporting, I am aware that, in my opinion, they are rarely credible. If a campaign wants to reveal a desired result (within reason), they can do a lot to manipulate the results of their polls.
Public polls ought to be the solution, in principle. At least public pollsters are rated by websites such as 538.com and have a history. They risk damaging their reputation when they publish a poll. It is not the same as private campaign polling. However, there isn’t much outside background for the media these days because public pollsters don’t follow New Jersey very often.
Convention season is upon us. In the absence of lines, however, politicians invest a great deal of time (and money) in winning a phrase that voters may not be familiar with. In 2025, how significant will conventions be, and why?
Dan:County groups are not as significant as they once were in a post-line society. However, they remain important, particularly in a primary as close as this one.
These conventions are gatherings of ordinary Democrats, whose opinions might range widely from moderate to progressive. While some people identify as reform Democrats, some are establishment Democrats, and many fall somewhere in the middle. A candidate can gain the favor of the general people when they demonstrate that they can win their support.
Is it possible to win the primary without the assistance of county or state party organizations? Definitely. However, demonstrating strength early on might help a candidate stand out in a crowded field.
Alex: Although Democrats control several highly organized and well-funded county committees, I am unable to speak for them in rural Republican counties. In an open primary, your money and time are objectively better spent elsewhere.
Campaigns can still benefit from contacting county committee members, especially in light of the Democrats’ new and practical higher signature requirements for petitions. Additionally, in a contested primary and particularly in the general election, which is flooded with Democratic special interest funds, you will still need the time, money, and voices of local, active Republicans. A campaign that is performing at its peak should be able to maintain a close relationship with local leaders while also being abreast of the fundraising and voter outreach objectives that will ultimately decide elections.
Former Republican leader Mitch McConnell is now a renegade independent, and it’s obvious that he has health problems that limit his effectiveness. Keep in mind that Kentucky’s Democratic governor has the authority to name any Republican. What strategy does McConnell have for what appears to be his last two years in the Senate? What is America’s long-term strategy for handling elected officials and possibly overly tenured Supreme Court justices?
Dan: It’s a sad fact of life that the only Republicans who are prepared to stand up to their Dear Leader and follow their conscience are those who are leaving. If you were to wager on the honesty and dignity of Washington’s Republicans, you would soon run out of money.
I don’t think there is a way to stop politicians from serving longer than necessary, and I personally oppose term limits (save for our present president). However, we must no longer discourage primaries and allow the most innovative candidates to prevail.
Alas In his primary battle, Dean Phillips was correct in many of his statements against President Biden, but the national Democratic party destroyed him in the process (why does the DNC always appear to show more fight tearing down their own than they do against Republicans?). Although I don’t believe Dean Phillips was the solution, I’m happy someone took the initiative to ask some awkward questions. Instead of less, we need more of that.
Alex: Although it can be difficult to watch at times, voters—and most importantly, family members—have the power to decide when an elected figure should resign. Any limiting criteria you would create to remove judges from the bench and old politicians from the corridors of power, in my opinion, would be essentially arbitrary and would eventually weaken the will of the electorate.
Alex, congrats on the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory. However, New Jersey Democrats took control of Burlington County and flipped four congressional seats the previous time the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Is it possible to persuade you that Republicans stand to gain from Super Bowl LIX?
Alex:We also had a fairly awful night in November of the previous odd-year Super Bowl, where the Eagles played the Chiefs (2023) and lost in the most agonizing fashion. Thus, we’re off to a strong start with a 2025 victory against the Chiefs!
But really, as a lifelong Philadelphia supporter, it’s an absolute delight to see us give the team another ring. Younger fans may begin to take all of this success for granted, which worries some of us who were born in the 1980s and 1990s! However, for the time being, I’ll use this year to teach my one-year-old how to smile and say “Eagles!”Dan:As a Jets supporter, I occasionally feel as like I’m rooting for a team in a separate league or something. It’s been more than fifteen (!!!) years since I last cheered for a playoff team. For someone who was unfamiliar with the franchise, it would be an unconscionable display of ineptitude.
I used to be too envious of Eagles supporters to send them my best wishes. As a football fan, though, I’m so dead inside that I don’t even give a damn anymore. Thus, congratulations to the Eagles and their supporters!
