In January, avian flu claimed the lives of over 8.2 million egg-laying chickens in the United States. According to a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, this has led to an increase in average egg costs across the country, including in Texas, to over $6 a dozen.
According to USDA data, a dozen would cost $6.57 at wholesale. The previous week, the price was $6.14. The week prior, it was less than $6,” Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist David P. Anderson said. “So, we see some very fast price transmission from the time we get supply cuts to the time we see it happening in the wholesale market.”
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), bird flu, also known as Avian Influenza A (H5N1), is common in wild birds and can occasionally infect humans, particularly individuals who deal with livestock, poultry, and waterfowl. The USDA reports that avian flu killed over 13.2 million egg-laying chickens in December.
There are already eight documented cases of avian flu among flocks that lay eggs in five states: California, Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Anderson said the egg market operates nationally, so interruptions are noticed everywhere, even if the majority of deaths happen outside of Texas.
“We’ve had more incidences of the disease on egg-laying farms in other parts of the country than we have had in Texas,” he stated. Given the ongoing disease outbreaks, I believe we should anticipate further price increases for eggs. According to the USDA estimates I received this morning, an additional 3 million egg-laying hens were lost in the past week alone.
According to Anderson, the industry’s ability to effectively halt the spread of bird flu and increase production to replace the dead hens would ultimately determine whether egg costs decline.
“Now, instead of replacing the normal kind of turnover in the population, or the flock, we’ve got to replace the normal turnover plus the chickens that are lost,” he stated. It’s a major game of catching up, then. From that perspective, I believe we may anticipate that supplies will continue to decline, which could result in higher prices.
According to AgriLife Extensive Service, the Texas egg industry brought in over $1.03 billion in 2023. According to Anderson, the price of a typical carton is not the only factor influenced by the egg industry.
“Eggs are also going to restaurants everywhere think particularly some of our breakfast-focused restaurants,” he stated. “We can also think of eggs going to our fresh table eggs that we’re thinking about from the grocery store, but also processing eggs [into] egg whites, liquid eggs, egg yolks, powdered eggs, all these different things, plus all the [products] eggs are used in … as an ingredient.”
According to Anderson, price increases in recent years have happened before.
“The other thing I should point out, that’s sometimes lost in this, is that egg prices tend to be very volatile,” he stated. “The wholesale price of eggs was 84 cents in May 2023, despite the fact that we had record-high prices in late 2022—more than $5 a dozen. Therefore, throughout that six-month period, we fell from almost $5 to 84 cents. So, is there a chance that prices will drop? Of course.”
